Article Courtesy: FPRC
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Interview Republished : FPRC Journal-58-(2024-2) India’s “Turbulent Neighbourhood”
FPRC -58 -Q&A.
1. Why are most South Asian states skeptical of India’s primacy in their own ways?
There are two ways of looking at this question. It is not necessarily skepticism that shapes their behaviour, but more to do with the realities and complexities of dealing with a big neighbour with unmatched credentials, who now is poised for greater role in international relations. The neighbours understand the advantages conferred on India by its geography, history, size, population, demography growing stature and the new emerging quotients of Comprehensive National Power (CNP). From what can be gleaned from the press and media from across the borders including Pakistan, there is grudging admiration for the big neighbour who seems to be playing all the cards right. The Pakistani press and media appear particularly impartial in assessing and acknowledging its own limitations by quoting what India has achieved in a pluralistic, multi cultural democratic society.
There is also a section of population and politicians who would like to sell the narrative that India is behind some of the targeted killings in Pakistan using its intelligence agencies implying that there perhaps is a capability to intervene in the extra judicial killings in the neighbouring countries( more so in Pakistan). This narrative is fuelled by the statements emerging from USA and Canada regarding the involvement of government machinery in foreign territory as was played out in the case of Pannu a Khalistan separatist. However, these have been analysed as the use of another handle by the west to keep a growing resurgent India under check.
India’s mature diplomacy as an instrument of foreign policy has brought in a lot of admiration even from the neighbours. However, some of the fault lines have their origins in the failed policies of the past which need to be acknowledged while analyzing the responses of the smaller neighbours in the bilateral relations. It would therefore be necessary to examine some of the past legacies of bilateral relations and contextualize them in the subcontinent. The China factor will continue to challenge the Indian political and military establishment while managing the neighbourhood. China’s actions or lack of them are important factors and India on its part continues to monitor the engagement of China with all the neighbours and constantly renews its own options in the backyard.
The period of India’s intervention in Sri Lanka’s affairs has not faded from the public memory more so in Sri Lanka which felt that India was supporting separatism though the intention was to protect the interests of the oppressed Tamil minority. The active support to the LTTE during the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka, though seen as support to the innocent victimized Tamils by India, the deployment of IPKF to fight Sri Lanka’s war are considered bad moves in the neighbourhood which made others worry about the possibilities of India’s intervention in the internal affairs of another country. Only after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi did India support Sri Lanka in the process of elimination of LTTE and restoration of peace. The fact that India recently renewed its ban on LTTE has ensured Sri Lanka that India is committed to peace in the neighbourhood. It is a different matter that some of the provisions of the 13th amendment that aimed to address the issues of inequality between minority Tamils and the majority population of Sri Lanka are still pending and is a cause of concern for the minorities in the Island nation.
The liberation of Bangladesh was entirely due to the Pakistan’s handling of the ethnic Bengali Muslims in what was then East Pakistan and India which was under severe strain with the surging refugee population facilitated the process of liberation of Bangladesh. However, these events are reflected as India’s manipulations amongst the domestic audience of the neighbours. Even after the creation of Bangladesh with the active support and military intervention by India, while the initial period saw great bonhomie while Sheik Mujabir was in power, the subsequent happenings did strain the relations. These related to illegal immigration, trafficking and cattle smuggling. However, in the last decade plus under the leadership of Sheik Hasina, many of the misunderstandings have been dispelled.
The notable exchange of LBA and also the acceptance of India of the overlapping claims in the Exclusive Economic Zone going in favour of Bangladesh have minimized mutual suspicions. In the case of Nepal, despite the cultural and religious similarities, the relations have been not very cordial and there have been serious misgivings on both sides. The recent inclusion of the three Indian areas in the currency of Nepal has led to the resignation with in Nepal of a political leader. Some of the actions along the border in the past has been interpreted by Nepal as obstructive to peace and tranquility along the border villages. The introduction of the Agniveer scheme also came in the way of recruiting Gorkha’s who have contributed in a big way to the Indian Army. This has given rise to resentment amongst the traditional support base of Gorkha’s who looked up to the Indian Army for livelihood while giving their best. These are some of the fault lines that have come in the way of normalisnig bilateral relations. Nepal is increasingly coming under the influence of China which is pumping in a lot of money to promote its own strategic interests with both the land and maritime neighbours of India. This is an area of concern and relations will continue to be strained with the China factor along with the legacy of the past in bilateral relations.
In the case of Maldives, it is again China which has made inroads for the second time after Yameen’s term that is an issue of concern. Soon after assumption of office, Muizzu insisted on removing the military personnel operating the air assets gifted by India to Maldives, though these were used mainly for SAR and HADR missions. Maldives in addition to abrogating the decades old agreement on hydrographic survey of its maritime areas has also gone ahead and contracted for unmanned aerial platforms from Turkey. Maldives, though it continues to enjoy the patronage by India due to the geographical, cultural and historical reasons, the new leader has shaped a pro- China policy that would impact India’s sphere of influence and engagement in the neighbour hood.
The fact that India recently agreed to the request for deferment of loans by another year despite some of the anti India policies of Muizzu government would illustrate the benign nature of engagement of India with its neighbours. That President Muizzu was present at the swearing in ceremony on 09 June to Delhi is an acknowledgement of the importance of India for the smaller neighbours. The fact that all the heads of Government of the neighbouring countries were invited is indicative of the importance attached by the Modi Government 3.0 for engaging with the neighbours. It is consistent with the neighbourhood first policy of India supported with the vision of SAGAR.
In the case of Bhutan a close ally of India, China again is the elephant in the room trying to make its way to Bhutan by the usual means of coercion, money and inducement more so about the long standing border demarcation.
Myanmar has too many domestic challenges and while the relations have been quite good, the domestic policies and the rule by the military Junta have been stumble blocks in establishing full-fledged relations.
When one uniformly examines the actions of India, more so in the light of examples illustrated above, in the last few decades, it is clear that India has expressed a strong commitment to promote Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR). By many of its actions in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan it has demonstrated that it walks the talk as the first responder in a crisis whether it was post Tsunami in 2004 or the water crisis in Maldives even when there was a pro- China Government in place and also the measures taken to bail out Sri Lanks during the economic crisis faced by the Island country burdened by debts and impending insolvency due to domestic crisis. Soon after retaining the portfolio of EAM post recent elections, Mr Jaishankar has clearly enunciated the commitment of the new Government for SAGAR and its neighbourhood first policy. Through the policy of Vasudhaiva kutumbam he has indicated that India will be a Vishwabandu meaning that it would be a benign friend of all.
2. Besides China’s assertive behavior, political and economic instability in “turbulent
neighbourhood” is a cause for concern for India. Do you agree?
There can be hardly any doubts about the need for a stable neighbourhood if India has to sustain its own growth trajectory which has demonstrated its resilience and sustainability. Sustained economic engagement with neighbours is inescapable for promoting SAGAR. Any instability aided by internal dynamics or due to external factors has the potential to snow ball in to many major hurdles to stymie India’s growth.
China factor is a major one in terms of the challenges that India faces in its traditional backyard. China with its military and muscle power coupled with money power has been engaging with countries in India’s neighbourhood to build its constituencies and serve its ambitions in areas of great relevance to India who China considers as the sole competition in Asia. China is leaving no stone unturned to engage with the countries in India’s neighbourhood. The BRI launched in 2013 and the more recent initiatives such as Global Development Initiative, CIDCA, GCI etc., have been used as instruments of engagement by bringing in investments that allow China to develop its relations with the smaller countries who are constantly looking at investments from foreign countries. With the surplus reserve of funds China finds it easy to invest to shape and nurture its strategic, commercial and political interests in the coming decades.
China which wants to develop its sea legs more so in the IOR to serve its strategy of establishing meaningful presence in the far seas is working at many levels. China has understood the emerging importance of the IOR in the coming decades and is doing everything to protect its long term interests in the region by engaging with both land and maritime countries. This has led to a environment of contestation which needs to be managed by India. On the part of India, in addition to its own responses in the economic, strategic and political fields, is compelled to look for alliances that can be handy in dealing with the challenges posed by China militarily and economically. India has understood the limitations in many areas where, China has a lead and plans to bridge the gap which cannot be done on its own. The economic differential is huge and the GDP growths can only be sustained by domestic growth and international business.
3. Why is India working on developing an “extended neighbourhood” that involves islands
in the Indian Ocean, Gulf countries and nations in South-East Asia.? Is it for a bigger,
influential and ambitious India?
India as the fastest growing economy and as a leading player in the emerging world order has to work with all countries both in the immediate neighbourhood, in the extended neighbourhood and also across continents. Such a growth trajectory cannot be sustained without enhanced engagements with the external world. In most of the countries there have been historical Indian connections and the local population in these countries still look up to India as the country of their origin and there is an emotional bond between the people and the countries. In the case of Middle Eastern countries ,again there is an Indian connect that dates back to centuries old sea voyages which even were coined as Monsoon (Trade winds) an Arabian word . The modern day Middle East countries are heavily dependent on the Indian skilled and unskilled Diasporas that ensure that these countries are run effectively. From the Indian point of view, the overseas remittances are huge and contribute to building of foreign exchange reserves. Even the Arab countries are looking to expand the envelope of engagement with other countries including India. This is a win win for both sides as there is surplus oil money that needs to be invested by the oil rich countries for future needs and growth. The recent signing of agreement with Iran for operating the Chahbahar port illustrates the desire of India to overcome obstacles in the neighbourhood (Pakistan not allowing trade transit through its borders) to enhance connectivity to the land locked neighbours, more specifically the CAR countries and through the INSTC to Europe .
In addition, there is a strategic angle to the engagements with the countries in the extended neighbourhood due to the China factor and also the independent need to grow by doing business with the countries that are increasingly looking at India as an option for diversification and for building up their own capacities and capabilities.
4. New Delhi’s ability to deal with Washington and Beijing can be significantly enhanced if India achieves greater strategic confidence in South Asian geopolitics. Do you agree?
Charity begins at home as they say, and in this context, only if we can succeed in shaping the South Asian policies for combined prosperity can India have a bigger influence in relations with the bigger countries of the world. However, China with a veto power will continue to be an impediment to India’s aspirations and will continue to be a spanner in India’s works. India today is a sought after destination and this has happened due to many of the policies that have made India a formidable ally.
India that succeeds in managing its neighbourhood and more importantly, its ability to harness the potential of the smaller countries would be important factors for external players to engage with India. From that point of view, while the failure of SAARC as an organization is quoted often, it must be remembered that despite the failure of SAARC due to the singular Pakistan factor, the bilateral relations with the countries in the neihbourhoood are on an upswing. The recent elections in the Maldives appear to have brought China closer to Maldives. With the determination of the Muizzu government to keep India away from its shores despite the traditional support enjoyed by the people of Maldives, India will face some head winds in bilateral relations with Maldives. However, this phase is not new as India did face a similar situation when Yameen another staunch supporter of China was in power.
India appears to be well placed to be a mediator /facilitator in many tough situations. This has come about due to the well-established credentials of a country that promotes its core interests by adhering to its concept of strategic autonomy which it recognizes as an equal right of other smaller nations in the neighbourhood.
5. The Indian government’s policy of diplomatically isolating Pakistan does not seem to be succeeding as Islamabad has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to engage Beijing, Moscow and Tehran. How far is it true?
By all counts and the happenings in Pakistan, it can safely be inferred that India’s policy of isolating Pakistan and keeping it out of any dialogue process till state sponsored terrorism has put enormous pressure on Pakistan. The internal instability and the political upheavals have not helped the cause of Pakistan which has become nearly inconsequential in India’s calculations. India’s stance on this has not changed, as is evident, from the exchange of greetings on the assumption of office by Modi for the third time. It has been made very clear that there can be hardly any scope for normalization of relations if state sponsored terrorism continues to be nurtured by the Government in power. It is not to say that the nuclear capability and the ability for mischief across borders has not been taken in to account. Pakistan on its part would like to reengage with strategic partners from the past to shore up its own CNP. There are many challenges in this approach and Pakistan would like to work on the difficulties of engaging with Iran with whom there was a small period of military tension with attacks on either side of the border.
It has similar challenges with China which is now hesitant to continue on the BRI initiatives due to the threat to its personnel in the China Pakistan Occupied Kashmir Economic Corridor (CPoKEC). The fact that security of Chinese investments and personnel in Pakistan was high on the agenda during the recent visit of the large delegation from Pakistan highlights the grim domestic situation in Pakistan which is looking for loans and debt restructuring .In addition, China has been compelled to reevaluate its BRI engagements with the target countries and is cutting down on some of the projects based on its own reevaluation. The engagement with Russia, which, is now grappled with the ill effects of Ukraine war for the last three years plus has a different connotation. Russia would like to keep its options open to sustain its own economy and the war machinery. The new Government in Pakistan has to first stabilize its internal situation before venturing out to manage external relations with the countries quoted above.
It can be inferred that Pakistan’s compulsions are to manage its internal contradictions first and also come out of the economic doldrums that has not helped its cause. Pakistan is used to working with both China and also USA in the past and tries to leverage its strategic position and its nuclear capability. However, it can be surmised that India has stalemated Pakistan in South Asia by exposing the follies of a neighbour who uses the failed policy cross border terrorism to deal with India, a big capable neighbour.
Please note the above interview was published on 7th July 2024 by Foreign Policy Research Centre (FPRC).
(Commodore (Retd) R. S. Vasan, Former Regional Commander Coast Guard Region East, Indian Navy is currently, Director Chennai Centre for China Studies and Regional Director National Maritime Foundation Tamil Nadu. The views expressed in the interview are personal and do not reflect the views of C3S.)
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