Image Courtesy: New Regime
Article Courtesy: Defence Research and Studies
Article: 52/ 2024
20 Oct 2024, marked an important event in Indo-China bilateral relations, in that both countries reached an agreement, significantly reducing the tensions due to more than four-year long stand-off in the Eastern Ladakh. The troop withdrawal has been completed and pre-agreed patrolling has commenced in the Galwan Valley region, at per Apr 2020 situation on ground, and finer details are being worked out. This has eased the border tensions to an appreciable extent.
Despite the aforementioned historical agreement, four important Questions which would warrant answers are: What is China’s real mind set? why China keeps needling India time and again? What has prompted China to reach this agreement? and, is it time for India to rejoice?
China’s Mindset: For many, China is a paradox, difficult to understand. For centuries China has continued with its communist ideology and macro-control, while following a ‘socialistic free market’ economy. China feels that such mix of contrasts is normal. But it certainly baffles the world as it forgets that China is a civilization-state, rather than a nation-state which is markedly different from the western states. China’s aggressive psyche, which affects China’s global relations in general and Sino-Indian relations in particular, is because of historical residues of its barbarian mentality, based on its quest for avenging the ‘Century of Shame’.
China’s Constant Needling of India: China’s ambitions of controlling the South Chian Sea, being the sole regional power and ultimately become only world power capable of challenging USA are not hidden. China sees India as the only hurdle in the path of those ambitions. China has also become more sceptical about India, due to the changing world view of India, and significant enhancement in India’s stature in the global affairs. Further, unstinted support of India for HH Dalai Lama ails the bilateral relations between the two countries. Consequently, there has been a visible transformation in the China’s India policy, and it has become more vociferous about its stance on eastern and western sectors of Indian borders. China thus wants to keep needling India, to keep it destabilised and away from becoming a reckonable regional power. The ‘Galwan Valley’ episode is part of the same nefarious designs of China.
Galvan Valley Stand-Off
Probable Reasons for China Reaching the Agreement: At present China is facing many critical situations, simultaneously like aging population, declining production, slowing economy, mounting debts, problems being faced by Chinese companies in Pakistan, setbacks in ‘Belt & Road (BRI) initiatives, and India’s consistent refusal to improve bilateral relations unless there is positive development on the border issues, and the situation in Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea, et al. In addition, unexpected prolonged Army standoff in Eastern Ladakh had exacerbated China’s problems. China realised that reaching an agreement with India with regards India’s demand for status- quo in Galvan Valley (as in Apr 2020) was probably a step that could offer it some much needed breathing space, and acted accordingly. A positive development, no doubts!
Is it Time to Rejoice for India? India had committed mistake of misreading China’s intentions many a times, in the past, and paid dearly for the same. Now is not the time to repeat that mistake, as history speaks for itself. Historically, China broke its promises made through ‘Panchsheel’ in 1954 and then through different agreements of 1993, 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2013, as a part of the confidence building measures (CBMs). In that, China not only vitiated the spirit of cooperation propagated by ‘Panchsheel’, by illegally infringing the Indian borders, but also disturbing peace and tranquillity of the region several times. China’s disregard for mutual agreements has been quite evident, giving India ample reasons to be cautious and pragmatic now.
Historically, China’s actions to create unwarranted disturbances on the Indian borders are not new. In the recent years, China has been unhappy with India because of much needed infrastructure development by India in the border areas, emergence of Indian influence in Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific regions and world’s acknowledgment of the same, India’s consistent refusal to join BRI and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and about India participation in the Quadrilateral Dialogue (QUAD) initiative. Thus, China’s actions have been in line with its thinking of clipping India’s wings, at every possible chance. China now needs to be realistic and avoid acting on misplaced apprehensions and self-centric assumptions.
China must understand that India has risen in the global political arena on its merits. India and China account for approximately 20.5% and 26.9 %, of the total global wealth in nominal and PPP terms, respectively, and together contribute more than half of Asia's GDP. What India and China could do together, if they join hands in real bonhomie, would need to no explanation.
In summary, it could be said that the current Indo-China agreement on border stand-off issues is a welcome step, towards establishing much needed peace in the region. However, based on the previous experiences, India can-not and should blindly trust the promises made by China, and establish mechanism to ensure actual implementation of those promises on ground, in its own national interests. As Sun Tzu has said, “To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.”
(Commodore SL Deshmukh, NM (Retd), has served Indian Navy for 32 years, is a Mechanical Engineer is specialised in both Marine & Aviation domains. He also holds a Masters in Defence Studies and a Post-Graduate in Management. He has served onboard aircraft carriers and is specialised on fighter aircraft and ASW helicopters. He held many operational and administrative appointments including Principal Director at Naval HQ, Commodore Superintendent at Naval Aircraft Yard, Director, Naval Institute of Aeronautical Technology and Project Director of a major Naval Aviation Project. He is alumni of Defence Services Staff College Wellington. He was with Tata Group for 5 years and is currently working with SUN Group‘s Aerospace & Defence vertical as Senior Vice President. He is also the Life Member of Aeronautical Society of India. The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of C3S.)
