Image Courtesy: Al Jazeera
Article Courtesy: Defence Research and Studies
Article: 33/ 2024
Headline- “Dhaka’s nasty turn: A lot to worry about for India” (TOI, 2024), has sounded an ominous warning for India. Sheikh Hasina, the former prime minister of Bangladesh, has been responsible for the country’s miraculous economic growth. She has been known for her ability to withstand pressures from countries like the USA and China, and their antagonism towards her has been growing. Further, ISI (Pakistan) has been antagonistic to her regime for a long, as she refused to buckle under their nefarious tactics or call to bond under religious considerations. She was also facing criticism on the home ground. It seems that the trio comprising USA, China and Pakistan-ISI have succeeded in fuelling unrest against her regime, resulting in her resignation and leaving Dhaka for India.
This article will try to examine the reasons for the antagonism of the above trio against Ms Sheikh Hasina and draw some parallels with the same trios’ antagonism against India, bringing out a need for India to treat events in Bangladesh as an ominous warning and be prepared to counter the probable fallouts.
Why USA, China and ISI Unhappy with Ms Sheikh Hasina?
United States of America
Bangladesh has enjoyed amicable relations with the United States (US) since 1971. The USA was one of the first countries to recognize it as an independent nation. Bilateral ties grew steadily and the golden jubilee of their diplomatic relations was celebrated in 2022. On the business front, the US is Bangladesh’s third-largest trading partner; the largest market for its Ready-Made Garments; the largest source of Foreign Direct Investment; and the largest investor in its energy sector.
However, in recent years, the harmonious relations have started deteriorating due to the US’s discontentment with Bangladesh’s domestic socio-political scenario. The root cause of the discord in US-Bangladesh relations was related to the US perception of human rights and democracy situation in Bangladesh. That culminated in the USA imposing sanctions over allegations of human rights abuse on seven former and current high-level officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion, in December 2021.
In 2022, the American Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas, visited the families of victims of alleged abductions, including the family of Sajedul Islam Sumon, a leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). He was critical of the human rights situation in the country and expressed his doubts about the conduct of ‘free and fair elections’.
The USA had been quite harsh about the sanctions and in January 2023, prevented a Russian ship, Ursa Major, carrying goods for Bangladesh’s nuclear power plant in Rooppur, from delivering the goods, as the ship was under US sanctions (Bose, 2024). The continued criticisms by the USA resulted in strong retaliation from then PM Sheikh Hasina, who advised the USA to examine its handling of democracy and human rights. She accused the US of seeking a regime change in Bangladesh and said, “They are trying to eliminate democracy and introduce a government that will not have a democratic existence.”
USA was also miffed with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s reference to a plot by a third country, that could lead to the division of Bangladesh on religious lines and her opposition to building an air base on Saint Martin’s Island by the USA. These irritants could have led to the USA’s support of the protest in Bangladesh (Mishra, 2024).
China
Bangladesh had been maintaining a tightrope balance in its relations with China and India. But lately, many analysts have started feeling that Bangladesh was no longer at that point. They attributed reasons for this discomforting opinion as Bangladesh had started showing much more interest in meeting Indian needs. China too seems to have come to the same conclusion. Analysts felt that Bangladesh had become more prone to India in terms of the geopolitical point of view, as it took many decisions recently, favourable to India, despite knowing that China would be unhappy.
China in any case was unhappy with Bangladesh’s cautious participation in its Belt and Road Initiative. Bangladesh’s tilt towards India seems to have added fuel to the fire. Keeping in line with its ‘String of Pearls’ project China wanted Bangladesh committedly on its side, but could not achieve that goal, adding to its chagrin. Bangladesh Armed Forces’ open condemnation of poor quality of China-supplied weapons and spares also did not go well with China.
China was looking for an opportunity to teach a lesson to the Sheikh Hasina regime. It seized its chance and snubbed Sheikh Hasina, during her official visit to China, by refusing to offer USD 5 Bn as Budgetary support, at low interest rates, to Bangladesh. Taken by surprise, Hasina returned home early from that trip, which many media outlets took as a sign of her displeasure with the outcomes (Islam,2024). This seems to have upset China and may have prompted it to initiate actions to topple the Sheikh Hasin regime.
Pakistan- ISI
Bangladesh was born after an agonizing fight by Mukti-Bahini, and considerable bloodshed, caused by Pakistan’s genocidal army and its local collaborators. Even after forty-five years of independence, Bangladesh continued to grapple with a sordid history of its War of Liberation. Liberation of Bangladesh certainly bruised the egos of both the Pakistan Army (especially ISI) and the Pakistan government, but more so in the case of the ISI. Bangladesh’s progress, economic prowess and rising geo-political stature caused further heartburn to ISI.
ISI, known for its nefarious activities, has not left any stone unturned in disturbing the security and stability of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has accused Pakistan of interfering in its internal affairs and has acknowledged Pakistan’s ‘direct involvement and complicity’ in the mass crimes committed during the War of Liberation.
Undoubtedly, the War of Liberation was based on a secular ethos. But after the assassination of Mujib in 1975, there has been a concerted assault on that ethos by Pakistan’s sympathetic political leaders who seized power. Some leaders tracked back to the ‘Lahore Resolution’ on the establishment of Muslim States- after the British left India, and justified that Bangladesh must be Islamic in its ethos. Many other leaders, encouraged by Ziaur Rahman, who donned the mantle of a freedom fighter and was allegedly complicit in the assassination of Mujib, pushed for the concept of Bangladeshi nationalism. This was another way of promoting an Islamic identity as the basis for nationalism, aided and abated by ISI (Chakravarty, 2024).
To add fuel to the fire, General Rahman permitted hardliner leaders from Jamaat to return to Bangladesh, who had fled Bangladesh after independence knowing that they would have to pay with their lives for their crimes. General Rahman forgave and rehabilitated them in his pursuit of political power. Jamaat, led by these collaborators, became the coalition partner of the BNP, the political party founded by General Rahman and is in cohorts with ISI. ISI exploited this relationship to its benefit.
Another dictator, General Hussain Muhammad Ershad, went on to amend the Constitution and made Islam the State religion. The dangerous interplay of religion and politics, introduced by military dictators, subverted the secular ethos of the War of Liberation, and this was a boon for ISI.
But Sheikh Hasina reversed most of the above policies and brought back democratic functioning, which wasn’t liked by the ISI and its stooges in Bangladesh. That has been a major reason for ISI wanting to overthrow the Sheikh Hasina government.
Events Leading Collapse of the Hasina Government
It has been reported that there has been systematic ‘behind the curtains’ preparation for overthrowing the Hasina government. However, it is not easy to get documented proof for such activities. But it seems that the beginning of the end of the Hasina regime began with the well-planned abstaining from the general elections- by the opposition parties, mainly the BNP (of Ms Khalida Zia). It seems BNP has been working in cohorts with ISI.
Bangladesh has suffered from Unrest from time to time. But the current events have been on a massive scale. A trigger for that has been attributed to the country’s job quota system that favoured descendants of the 1971 liberation war. On June 06, a day after Bangladesh’s high court restored the country’s job quota system, about 500 students gathered at Dhaka University to demand its repeal. The protest slowly assumed phenomenal proportions.
It is important to note that the Hasina government had multiple chances to placate the protesters, but it chose defiance and crackdown instead, resulting in at least 300 deaths. Sensing the public mood Hasina government had appealed to the High Court to review its job reservation verdict, but it was probably too late by then. The Awami League had failed to grasp the long-standing deeper grievances, underlying the movement. The government’s rhetoric, reference to Razakar, and actions further strengthened the anti-government sentiments and resulted in the violent eruption of Bangladesh’s most potent and irrepressible political force represented by its university students.
After several attempts to control the protests, the Hasina government declared another nationwide curfew after the police and ruling party’s student wing members killed more protesters. But violence continued unabated. Finally, the Army- after standing with the government over a long period of protests, but now sensing severe trouble, balked and refused to cooperate with the Hasina government.
As a consequence, Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister for 15 years, abdicated power on 05 Aug 2024, approximately two months after the beginning of the protests. She fled the country as a coalition of Bangladeshi students, political opponents and ordinary citizens marched to her residence to demand her resignation. As the prime minister departed for India, the head of the army announced his plan to form an interim government in a televised address (USIP, 2024). In summary, analysts feel that the following 5 mistakes cost the Hasina government dear (ET, 2024):
Mishandling job quota protests
Allowing deadly protests to continue for weeks
Arrogance
Controversial Razakar comment
Rampant corruption and nepotism
Muhammad Yunus (84), was picked by President Mohammed Shahabuddin, to lead the interim government. This has been to fulfil a key demand of student demonstrators, who caused the Hasina government’s downfall. The Nobel Peace laureate tapped to lead an interim government in Bangladesh has been critical of Sheikh Hasina and is inimical towards India. The interim government is expected to conduct the general election in three months and BNP, a staunch opponent of India is expected to come to power, which will be another agonizing political headache for India.
Analysis shows that all the above events were indicative of behind-the-screen moves by USA/China/ISI, coupled with local disgruntled elements – proof or no proof.
Commonalities with India
A scrutiny of the narrative above would reveal considerable commonalities with many happening in India. India too is on the radar of the same three forces, which worked toward the downfall of the Hasina Government.
USA
Despite visibly displayed optimism about the strong U.S.-India relationship, reality shows that the relations are considerably more fragile than they appear. The two countries have been and will continue to experience friction in several areas which, if left unattended, could derail cooperation, affecting not only India but the region.
The United States holds deepening concerns about its perceived notions related to India’s less tolerance towards minorities and their religions, its abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, government policies that include curbs to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly, and other basic rights, curbs on media and Civil Society (Paul and Ganguly, 2024). The USA does this despite its bleak record on all the above fronts.
Many policymakers in Washington continue to be concerned that the Indian government has transformed India into an illiberal democracy. The USA also quietly despises India for its close ties with Russia (while the USA continues to hobnob with China and Pakistan). The USA also seems to be miffed with India for its desire to have a seat at the table of great powers, which is antithetical to the USA’s wish to maintain its primacy in the international system. The USA also feels that despite India’s support and participation in US initiatives, its desire for multipolarity manifests itself as an anti-Western policy, to its chagrin. (Rand, 2024). Thus, the USA has all the motives to create problems for India.
China
China’s ambition- of being the sole Asian Power and the only country capable of competing with the USA, is not hidden. The biggest hurdle in Beijing’s aspirations is India. India’s rising geo-political stature in the region, its rising economic and political might, India’s hard stance on Galvan Valley and its good relations with Russia are all disliked by China. In addition, India’s hard control over its relationship with China’s close ally Pakistan, and India’s staunch opposition to joining the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) and ‘Regional Comprehensive Economic Pact’ (RCEP), has riled China. India’s opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) coupled with India’s ability to garner developmental projects in the neighbourhood, which are detrimental to China’s ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’, and finally, India’s open support to HH Dalia Lama add fuel to the dragon’s fire. Thus, China has both a strong desire and motives to destabilize India.
ISI
Pakistan has had a troubled relationship with India since its inception in 1947. India’s growing stature in global politics, its strong economic policies and growth, and India’s abilities to manage the tightrope walk between the relations with the USA, Europe and Russia make Pakistan jealous of India. Pakistan was deeply hurt by India’s active participation in the creation of Bangladesh and is angry with its failure to create independent Kashmir. In addition, India’s strong actions in curbing Terrorism and boldness of actions across the borders-if necessary, have been sour points for Pakistan. Pakistan is displeased with India because of its efforts in putting Pakistan on FATF’s grey list, and its opposition to CPEC. India’s ability to maintain good relations with most of the Muslim countries, and successfully participate in many multinational initiatives like QUAD, and SCO is disliked by Pakistan. Pakistan feels that its unmistakable drubbing in 1965, and 1971, and the Kargil Wars by India have undermined Pakistan’s global image. Thus, Pakistan too has every motive to destabilise India and create all sorts of problems for it.
Other Commonalities
There are many other commonalities between the situation in Bangladesh (before the relinquishment of power by Sheikh Hasina) and that is prevailing in India as of now: –
Interference in general elections in India by outside agencies
Resurgence in terrorist attacks in J and K, continuing unrest in Manipur
Behind the screening efforts by Civil Society- like Omidyar Network India, many foreign-funded NGOs, attacks on India by US Universities (especially Harvard) and foreign-owned Indian Media Houses, USA reports on India based on manipulated data.
Multiple cases are being filed in the Supreme Court and other courts against governmental policies/initiatives
Constant corruption accusations against the government
Resurgence in demand for quota by some sections and opposition to that from other sections
China’s attitude toward destabilizing countries which are considered inimical to China’s economic and geopolitical interests
Ominous Warning for India
The antagonism of the trio – USA, China, Pakistan-ISI (which were probably involved in toppling the Sheikh Hasina government), towards India, and many other commonalities between the situation in Bangladesh (before toppling of Hasina government) and those prevailing in India as of now, should be a cause of worry for both- Indian Government and Indian Citizens.
It should be treated by the government as an Ominous Warning and India and its citizens should brace themselves appropriately for the probable fall-outs, which are undoubtedly in the realm of possibility. Bharat that is India should not forget the dictum ‘Forewarned is Forearmed’.
Conclusion
The events that happened in Bangladesh and the subsequent toppling of the Sheikh Hasina government, which was friendly towards India, are not in the interests of India, to say the least. The probable role played by the USA, China and Pakistan (ISI), countries unhappy with Hasina’s regime, in toppling the Hasina government in Bangladesh should be a cause of worry for India. The fact that the three countries named above have a reason to pick up a ‘bone of contention’ with India should add to that worry. Further, the commonalities between the situation in Bangladesh and that prevailing in India as of now should alarm both the government and the citizens of India. India, therefore, needs to analyse the similarities cited above thoroughly. It also needs to put in place measures to counter similar efforts by the outside powers and the disgruntled elements to achieve the following in India, for fulfilling their ulterior motives:
Destabilization
Anarchy and Unrest
Dividing the citizens using false narratives and media propaganda
As Sun Tsu had said, “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” Jai Hind.
(Commodore SL Deshmukh, NM (Retd), has served the Indian Navy for 32 years and is a Mechanical Engineer specialised in both Marine & Aviation domains. He also holds a Masters in Defence Studies and a Post-Graduate in Management. He has served onboard aircraft carriers and specialised in fighter aircraft and ASW helicopters. He held many operational and administrative appointments including Principal Director at Naval HQ, Commodore Superintendent at Naval Aircraft Yard, Director, at Naval Institute of Aeronautical Technology and Project Director of a major Naval Aviation Project. He is an alumnus of Defence Services Staff College Wellington. He was with Tata Group for 5 years and is currently working with SUN Group‘s Aerospace & Defence vertical as Senior Vice President. He is also a Life Member of the Aeronautical Society of India. He is a Distinguished Member of C3S. The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of C3S.)
References:
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