Image Courtesy: The Policy Chronicle
Article 4/2025
The People's Republic of China has increasingly pursued an assertive foreign policy, actively and at times aggressively promoting its national interests on the global stage. This assertiveness spans many geopolitical, economic, technological, religious, socio-cultural, and military domains. China's growing influence, particularly over developing and strategically important nations rich in resources, reflects its ambitions to reshape global dynamics and position itself as a dominant global power.
In contrast, the United States, historically a central actor in global conflicts, peacebuilding, and international aid, has shown signs of relative disengagement from certain international issues. This shift towards domestic priorities, alongside reassessing its foreign policy approaches, signals a retraction of its traditional role in global governance. While the U.S. has attempted to counter China’s rise through sanctions, policy shifts, and strategic partnerships, the effectiveness of these efforts in curbing China's assertiveness remains a point of debate.
Against this backdrop, India emerges as a key player in the evolving global order. Rather than adopting a neutral stance, India has aimed to strengthen its position by balancing diplomatic engagement with strong assertiveness. The nation is actively pursuing its national interests while striving to contribute to global stability. This strategic approach underscores India’s potential as a stabilizing force within a shifting multipolar world, positioning it as a critical participant in shaping the emerging global order.
Evaluating China’s Assertive Powerplay
China has consistently demonstrated assertiveness on the global stage, shaping regional and international dynamics through calculated power plays. From the 1969 Sino-Indian War to its recent controversial construction of dams on the Brahmaputra River, Beijing's geopolitical strategy reflects a long-standing commitment to expanding influence. Its stance on Taiwan since 1949, along with its military buildup and maritime assertions, further underlines this approach. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, amplifies China's reach through infrastructure investments, trade agreements, and political leverage over participating nations. The territorial claims in the South China Sea, media control, and ideological promotion also showcase its ambition to influence both domestic and global narratives.
One example of Beijing’s assertiveness is its escalating pressure on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducts regular air and sea patrols to intimidate Taipei, complemented by frequent cyberattacks targeting Taiwanese government institutions (Maizland, 2024). Beijing has also restricted cross-strait communications, tourism, and diplomatic engagements with international corporations to isolate Taiwan. These efforts are further compounded by China’s manipulation of Taiwanese politics through social media platforms and disinformation campaigns, which aim to deepen societal divisions, erode public resolve against unification, and undermine Taiwan's democratic institutions (Maizland, 2024).
Domestically, China’s assertiveness is evident in its treatment of religious and cultural minorities. In Xinjiang, over a million Uyghur Muslims have been detained in "re-education camps," where they undergo forced ideological training designed to suppress their cultural and religious identities (Maizland, 2022). Additionally, Beijing imposes strict limitations on religious practices and teachings, including those associated with the Dalai Lama (Hoshur, 2025). These measures form part of a broader strategy to consolidate state dominance and eliminate perceived sources of dissent, demonstrating China’s determination to suppress challenges to its authority.
China’s influence extends to South Asia through economic and military involvement. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship BRI initiative, has strengthened Beijing’s influence in Pakistan through infrastructure projects and military cooperation, including arms sales and joint exercises (Bhattacharya, 2024). Following a terrorist attack in Karachi, Beijing pressured Islamabad to intensify military action against separatist groups, further entrenching its role in Pakistan’s security affairs (Kumar, 2024). Similarly, Beijing’s $200 million investment in the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge has amplified its presence in the Maldives. Under President Mohamed Muizzu, Beijing’s influence has expanded through maritime research projects and the deployment of Chinese intelligence vessels, raising strategic concerns for the region (Brar, 2024).
Another dimension of China’s strategy is its control over critical resources. This is evident in its suspension of gallium and germanium exports, a move targeting U.S. technological capabilities, particularly in the military and semiconductor sectors. By influencing global supply chains, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to leverage economic power for strategic gains (Sullivan, 2024). The Digital Silk Road (DSR) further expands China’s influence by offering affordable technology alternatives to developing nations. However, the integration of Chinese surveillance systems into national infrastructures raises concerns about data security and dependency, particularly in Africa and the Indo-Pacific (Williams, 2024).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s vaccine diplomacy showcased its ability to leverage global health initiatives for strategic influence. By supplying vaccines to developing nations, particularly in Latin America, Beijing positioned itself as a reliable partner. Despite challenges with vaccine efficacy and distribution, this effort garnered goodwill and strengthened China’s foothold in these regions (Nolte, 2022). Nevertheless, questions remain about the long-term implications of such dependencies, especially in terms of geopolitical alignments and influence.
Through military maneuvers, economic strategies, digital infrastructure initiatives, and health diplomacy, China has entrenched its position as a key player reshaping global geopolitics. Whether in Taiwan, the South China Sea, or through initiatives like the BRI, Beijing’s actions challenge international norms and provoke responses from rival powers. While China’s rise demonstrates strategic acumen, it also raises significant concerns about regional stability, human rights, and over-reliance on Chinese resources. As Beijing continues to assert itself globally, its influence will undoubtedly redefine the balance of power in the years to come.
Disengagement and Diplomacy
The United States, once a dominant force in global peacekeeping, counter-terrorism initiatives, and strategic military positioning, has gradually shifted its focus in recent years. By prioritizing domestic issues and national interests over international responsibilities, the U.S. has increasingly stepped back from key global situations where it was once heavily involved. This change has allowed new players to rise, signaling an evolving role for the U.S. on the world stage. Instances of this disengagement can be observed across various regions, marking distinct transformations in U.S. global leadership.
Historically, the United States championed open markets despite being less reliant on trade than other developed nations. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), initiated in 2002 and expanded under President Obama’s "pivot to Asia" strategy, aimed to establish a megaregional trade network involving twelve nations, excluding China. Though an agreement was reached in 2015, the TPP faced significant opposition within the Democratic Party during the 2016 election. Ultimately, the agreement was never ratified by Congress (McBride, 2017). In 2017, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP, marking a clear departure from multilateral trade agreements. This move strained relations with key U.S. allies in Asia and allowed China to extend its economic influence in the Asia-Pacific, undermining efforts to curb its growing dominance (Maini, 2025).
A similar pattern of reduced involvement is evident in the U.S. approach to the Yemen conflict. The U.S. supported the Saudi-led coalition opposing Houthi rebels by providing arms and logistical assistance. However, under the Biden administration, this policy underwent a significant shift. In February 2021, President Biden announced the cessation of U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s offensive operations in Yemen, marking a departure from previous administrations' military strategies. While the U.S. continues counterterrorism efforts and provides humanitarian assistance, this policy reflects a broader trend of prioritizing diplomacy over direct military engagement (Friedman, 2019).
The U.S.'s disengagement from military operations mirrors its declining leadership in global trade. By withdrawing from significant trade agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. has allowed China to establish new trade norms. This retreat is further reflected in the stagnation of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and a declining trade-to-GDP ratio since 2000 (Djankov et al., 2021).
Another significant example of the U.S.'s shifting approach to international agreements is its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Established in 1987, the INF aimed to eliminate nuclear and conventional missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The U.S. withdrew after accusing Russia of violating the treaty’s terms by deploying the 9M729 missile system. Despite diplomatic efforts, the U.S. concluded that continued participation was untenable (Pompeo, 2019). This withdrawal underscores a broader trend of disengagement from multilateral agreements during the Trump administration, raising concerns about the future of nuclear non-proliferation and global security.
Shifting Power Dynamics: China’s Assertiveness, U.S. Disengagement, and India’s Role in the New Global Order
As global power dynamics shift, India is emerging as a rising actor, reshaping international relations. While China intensifies its global influence through assertive strategies, the U.S. pivots toward domestic priorities and reduces its global commitments. In this changing landscape, India has swiftly stepped into the gap. With a focus on national interests, India’s strategic choices are reimagining global leadership, contrasting with the approaches of China and the U.S. In the absence of decisive U.S. actions and amid China’s expansion, India’s evolving role has garnered significant attention. Through diplomatic initiatives, regional collaborations, and a commitment to multilateralism, India is positioning itself as a responsible global leader. By ensuring regional security in the Indo-Pacific and expanding its influence in multilateral platforms, India is crafting a future that balances its priorities with a broader vision for cooperation. This analysis explores how India is enhancing its global influence amid China’s assertiveness and U.S. disengagement
The South China Sea and Maritime Security
China has intensified its territorial claims in the South China Sea by constructing and militarizing artificial islands (Lee, 2023), despite international arbitration rejecting its territorial claims. This assertiveness has spurred regional defense modernization, with countries like Indonesia pursuing advanced weaponry, such as BrahMos missiles, to bolster security (Siddiqui, 2025). Meanwhile, the U.S. has reduced its strategic commitments in the region. Although the U.S. continues freedom-of-navigation operations to contest China's expansion, its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has weakened its economic and strategic presence in Asia. In contrast, India has strengthened ties with ASEAN nations, collaborated through initiatives like the Quad, and increased its naval activities in the Indo-Pacific (Siddiqui, 2024), emphasizing freedom of navigation.
Afghanistan and Central Asia
Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China enhanced its relationship with the Taliban to secure projects tied to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and gain access to Afghanistan’s mineral resources. This move has intensified the power vacuum left by the U.S., diminishing its role as a stabilizing force in South Asia. India has worked to alleviate this vacuum by reinforcing ties with Central Asian nations and increasing security cooperation with Russia and Iran, aiming to prevent the spread of extremism and foster regional stability. The U.S.'s chaotic withdrawal has been criticized for leaving Afghan allies behind and undermining its influence in the region (Ganaie and Ganaie, 2022 ).
India has also strengthened its position in Central Asia through initiatives like the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), offering alternatives to China’s BRI and enhancing regional connectivity.
The Arctic
China has positioned itself as a “near-Arctic state” (Descamps, 2019), engaging in resource exploration and developing shipping routes in the Arctic, often in collaboration with Russia. In contrast, the U.S. has shown limited involvement, failing to match China’s investments and strategy in the region. Meanwhile, India, as an observer in the Arctic Council, has contributed to scientific research and fostered partnerships with Arctic countries, prioritizing sustainable development and environmental stewardship to establish itself as a responsible stakeholder in the Arctic.
Digital Footprint and Semiconductor Leadership
China has expanded its technological influence in developing countries by exporting surveillance technologies, such as facial recognition systems and smart city infrastructure, enhancing its digital dominance. The U.S has struggled to provide competitive alternatives, leading to a diminished role in influencing the digital development of these nations. Conversely, India has become a leader in digital transformation, promoting digital public goods like Aadhaar and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) as scalable models for developing countries. India is also positioning itself as a semiconductor manufacturing hub, forging agreements with Taiwan to develop chip-making infrastructure and diversifying the global technology supply chain (Bhandari, 2024).
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regional Connectivity
In response to China’s expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially in Africa, Asia, and Europe, the U.S. has struggled to provide a unified counteroffer, leading many developing countries to increasingly rely on Chinese funding and infrastructure. This economic dependence has significantly enhanced China’s global influence, while the U.S. has failed to match China’s scale, weakening its role in shaping global trade and development.
In contrast, India has promoted its own connectivity initiatives, such as the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and strengthened ties with Japan through the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) to offer alternatives to the BRI (Taniguchi, 2020). India’s focus on sustainable and mutually beneficial infrastructure development stands in contrast to China’s broader economic diplomacy.
Resource Diplomacy: Sudan and Africa’s Mining Sector
China has deepened its influence in Africa through strategic mediation and securing key resource agreements in the oil, gas, and mining sectors, such as cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and copper in Zambia. This aligns with China’s economic objectives and non-interference approach. In contrast, the U.S. has reduced its involvement in African conflicts, focusing on sanctions and selective engagement, and has largely neglected resource diplomacy. India, on the other hand, has increased its investments in education, healthcare, and technology transfer, while pursuing diplomatic efforts to secure vital resources. India’s approach promotes sustainable development and global health leadership while carefully managing China’s growing footprint in the region.
In light of the shifting global power dynamics, India is emerging as a pivotal force, strategically navigating the changing landscape to influence the future of international relations. As China expands its reach and the United States withdraws from key regions, particularly the Indo-Pacific and the Arctic, India is seizing the opportunity to elevate its global standing. Through a blend of regional cooperation, multilateral engagement, and technological advancements, India is not only countering China's expansionist tactics but also offering constructive alternatives to global challenges.
India’s strengthened ties with ASEAN, the Quad, Central Asia, and Africa, along with its progress in digital transformation and semiconductor production, underscore its growing economic and security influence. While China’s assertiveness, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative, tests global stability, India continues to focus on partnerships that emphasize shared development and security goals.
With the U.S. stepping back from global commitments, India is stepping forward, offering a more inclusive and collaborative vision for the future. As global power structures evolve, India’s diplomatic, economic, and strategic actions are key in shaping a new order where regional cooperation and technological progress drive global stability. This emerging role highlights India’s significance in defining the geopolitical future of the 21st century.
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(Ms. Nayanadeepa C S is a research intern at C3S. The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of C3S.)
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